Zach Eflin – PHI – RHP (42%) vs WSH
Season Stats (18 GS) 9 W, 3.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 93 K/ 24 BB in 100 IP
At 24 years old, Eflin has taken a step forward in his 3rd season. The renaissance for Eflin seems to be generated out of bringing back his slider, to a much better level than he had in his rookie year. After maxing out around a 12% K rate in his first two seasons, he is now almost striking out a batter an inning at 22%. Not only is the K rate supported by a much improved swinging strike rate, but he is getting a career high soft contact rate.
He should provide good Ks, good ratios and a good chance of the win against the struggling Nats.
(The Nationals rank 21st in the league with a .236 AVG and 20th in the league with a .701 OPS on the road this season. They also rank 11th in the league with a .250 AVG and 9th in the league with a .747 OPS vs RHP).
Stream in standard leagues
Sam Gaviglio – TOR – RHP (3%) @ BAL
Season Stats (18 GS) 2 W, 5.08 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 84 K/ 28 BB in 90 IP
Gaviglio has not put together a particularly impressive season in 2018. However, he did look really good (albeit against the Orioles) in his last appearance, striking out 7 in 7 innings and only allowing 2 runs. When you look deeper at what might be correlated to his better starts, you can start to notice something about his pitch mix.
When he is able to keep his fastball percentage lower and use more sliders (pictured in yellow), he seems to fare much better. The Ks spike, and his xFIP has continued to drop as his slider usage goes up in his last few games. He’s facing off against Baltimore again, and he has a good chance to rack up decent Ks, decent ratios and a good chance of a win.
(The Orioles rank 15th in the league with a .249 AVG and 14th in the league with a .738 OPS at home this season. They also rank 26th in the league with a .240 AVG and 24th in the league with a .710 OPS vs RHP).
Stream in deeper leagues