Junior Guerra – MIL – RHP (47%) @ CIN
Season Stats (14 GS) 3 W, 2.82 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 74 K/ 30 BB in 76 IP
After a great (late) rookie season, Guerra struggled last season, and has rebounded in 2018. He is putting together a solid K rate at just about a K an inning with a walk rate that’s just a little high, and has even been able to get a decent amount of infield fly balls. He’s still giving up hard contact and batters are pulling the ball in the air, so it’s unlikely he will remain a sub-3.00 ERA starter all year. However, it is reasonable for him to be a mid to high 3s ERA pitcher with good Ks and a good chance at the W with the Brewers behind him.
(The Reds rank 13th in the league with a .249 AVG and 9th in the league with a .744 OPS at home this season. They also rank 8th in the league with a .251 AVG and 15th in the league with a .719 OPS vs RHP).
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Tanner Roark – WSH – RHP (54%) @ PHI
Season Stats (15 GS) 3 W, 4.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 79K/ 33 BB in 92 IP
Roark has but up decent numbers this season consistent with his career. He’s not an extreme strikeout or ground ball pitcher but has serviceable command and K rates. His peripheral stats are pretty close to his past seasons where he’s had success, he’s just allowed a few more hard hits and fly balls. He’s had great seasons in the past with sub-3.00 ERAs and has the ability to contribute a W with the Nationals backing him up. They’ve had a rough couple games and they are due for more run production.
(The Phillies rank 20th in the league with a .240 AVG and 11th in the league with a .732 OPS at home this season. They also rank 26th in the league with a .235 AVG and 16th in the league with a .719 OPS vs RHP).
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Mike Leake – SEA – RHP (33%) @ BAL
Season Stats (16 GS) 8 W, 4.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 60 K/ 23 BB in 100 IP
Overall, Leake is not having a fantastic season. However, he is having a good stretch of starts. In his last 7 games, he has gone 6 IP or more each appearance, has a 2.17 ERA (with ERA indicators that point to a mid to high 3s ERA being deserved) and good control numbers. He only had one start in that stretch where he allowed more than 2 runs. In his last appearance he even pitched 8 shutout innings against Boston. Now, his strikeouts are low, almost down to 1/2 K per inning, but he does play on a good team and really, he will be facing one of the worst offenses in the league. A decent chance at good ratios with low Ks and a good chance of the W for Leake on Thursday.
(The Orioles rank 25th in the league with a .232 AVG and 24th in the league with a .702 OPS at home this season. They also rank 29th in the league with a .224 AVG and 27th in the league with a .673 OPS vs RHP).
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MLB Correspondent | Despite the inherent challenges of being a Rays fan, I’ve thrived as an avid fan of all things baseball and fantasy baseball for 20 years.